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Numbers came out this morning. Non-farm payrolls minus 539k for April. The telling number was the upward revision to March and February. Both months were revised up by 30k more losses. March is now at 699k and February to 681k. January I think was 741k. So if my little pea brain is working we have shed through the first 4 months of the year a total 2.66 million jobs. It is safe to assume I think that April will also be revised up next month so in reality we are looking at close to 3 million jobs up in smoke already this year in 4 months. Scared yet? --------------------------------------------------------------
A little crazy is OK |
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Kinda scared ruckman. I think most people with a brain take the gov't #s with a big fat grain of salt these days. At least I hope they do. We keep comparing unemployment rates today with the 30's or with the 80's and keep hearing it is not as bad. What no one really talks about is how different the WAY we keep the numbers today are from how they calculated the #s back then. I read somewhere that the true number if counted the same way it was in the 80s would be about 15-16%. --------------------------------------------------------------
Girls like gold |
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missfiat is correct. They are reporting U3 primarily where the more realistic number is U6. --------------------------------------------------------------
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Same thing with GDP. If you were to look at GDP just over the last 5-6 years and you were to back out the percentage of GDP that was due to mortgage equity withdrawel the GDP # would be under 1% for that time frame. Don't know if anyone has noticed but MEW is all but dead for the forseeable future. |
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JohnJ I think you are correct. The question is if MEW drove the economy for the last 5 or 6 years what will the driver for growth be going forward? --------------------------------------------------------------
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Maybe the driving force will be the "green economy". Not sure how that is going to be able to take up the slack but I think they will give it a shot. --------------------------------------------------------------
Girls like gold |
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I dont think the green economy is going to be anywhere close to big enough to take up the slack in employment. Contruction and housing accounted for roughly 40% of job growth from 2001-2005. Think of how big that industry was when you factor in agents, mortgages, contruction etc. Now throw the auto industry on top of that and it looks like the green shoots are in serious need of some water. --------------------------------------------------------------
A little crazy is OK |
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I think you are right Ruck. Also factor in productivity increases and the irony is that a lot of these green jobs will be done by assembly lines and computers. I think that is why there is such a big push for infrastructure build outs. More bang for the buck. The question is what happens a year or two down the road when the bridges and roads are done? --------------------------------------------------------------
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Same old argument. May numbers come out and are touted as less than April so they call it a "drop' from the previous month. What they didn't say was that April was originally reported as minus 491k jobs and was revised down this month to minus 549k jobs. So the minus 532k jobs lost in May was an "improvement". |
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| 05/19/2012 | |||
