Here we are coming in to the last week of February 2010.  From all appearances it would seem that things are getting better. 

Indeed if you listen to the main stream media and the Obama administration they would have you believe that the worst is over and recovery is nigh. 

"The next Depression has been avoided" is what we hear.

The only thing I can say about that is I truly hope for their sake they are correct.  If things play out the way I think they are going to play out, Mr. Obama will end up being a one term president. 

I understand that much of the economy is based on confidence.  But that can only take you so far.  When you have over 6 million people considered to be long term unemployed, it does not really engender confidence. 

The fact that weekly new claims are still hovering close to 500K every single week helps to keep things in perspective.  The labor market is not really improving.  It is only getting worse at a lesser rate.  Unless or until we actually see a turn around in jobs, forclosures will continue to rise which will only add more and more stress to an already weak economy. 

The question is, what will trigger that jobs turn around?  In the late 90's it was the tech bubble.  We know how that turned out.  In the early 2000's it was of course the housing/credit bubble.  Again, nice result there.  So what will be the catalyst for a new boom in jobs? 

The irony is that as technology continues its relentless march forward, the need for human interaction becomes less and less important.  As productivity increases at a geometric rate, the need for human's in manufacturing becomes less and less.  This is only going to get worse as technology continues to advance.

Maybe this time it will end up being different.  I fear that we are looking at a generation or so of stagnant to declining standards of living for those of us in the west.  The global nature of business now means we must compete with others who are willing to work for much less that Americans and Brits and all of us in the developed west are accustomed to.

I can only hope that I am wrong. 

Tags: Housing Market Employment